Maine’s 2nd District Race Defies Easy Predictions
The race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jared Golden in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is drawing attention as Democrats try to hold a rural district that has increasingly favored Republicans in presidential elections. Republican nominee and former Gov. Paul LePage faces Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap. Early assessments have varied, with some forecasters giving Republicans an advantage while other polling has shown a closer contest. A May Republican-sponsored poll had LePage ahead of Dunlap 50%-40%, while Dunlap’s campaign later released a poll showing the race much closer. (NRCC)
The district’s political history is a major factor in the race. Donald Trump carried the 2nd District in 2016, 2020 and 2024, but Golden was able to win three times by emphasizing his independence from national Democratic leadership. Dunlap is now receiving additional support from national Democrats, while Republicans are highlighting LePage’s record and positioning the race as an opportunity to reclaim the seat. With the national political environment also influencing the contest, the 2nd District remains an important race to watch this fall. (mainepublic.org)
Maine Attorney General Succession Race Takes Shape
The race to replace Attorney General Aaron Frey is beginning to develop ahead of the 2026 election. Frey is term-limited, and Maine’s attorney general is selected by the Legislature rather than elected directly by voters—a system unique among the states. The next attorney general will be chosen by the newly elected Legislature after November’s election. (NAAG)
Two Democrats have emerged as potential contenders: Sen. Anne Carney of Cape Elizabeth and Yarmouth attorney Tim Shannon. Carney has confirmed her candidacy and would have to decline her newly won Senate seat if selected. Shannon, a lawyer and Yarmouth town councilor, previously challenged Frey for attorney general in 2018. Republicans have also expressed interest, including lobbyist Josh Tardy, gubernatorial nominee Bobby Charles and former Attorney General Bill Schneider. The outcome of the legislative elections will therefore play a central role in determining who succeeds Frey. (web.legis.maine.gov)
Maine Senate Race Draws Record-Breaking Campaign Spending
The 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race is attracting an extraordinary level of political spending, with advertising already far surpassing the pace of the 2020 Collins-Gideon contest. AdImpact data showed roughly $138 million had been spent on advertising by early September, while reservations through the end of the year have pushed the projected total even higher. Republican-aligned groups currently account for a larger share of the spending, a shift from the 2020 race. (The Portland Press Herald)
A significant portion of the spending is coming from outside groups and organizations that do not publicly disclose all of their donors. A New York Times analysis found approximately $75 million in Maine Senate advertising tied to dark-money groups, including substantial spending supporting Collins and opposing her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson. (monorepo-sample1.nyt.net) With the race receiving heavy spending from both sides and outside groups, Maine voters are seeing an increasingly large volume of political advertising well before Election Day.